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Assessing Systemic Fragility – a Probabilistic Perspective
(2014-10-01)
We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic ...
The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
(2014-04-01)
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty ...
The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation Plans
(2014-10-01)
We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks. Simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 OECD countries ...
Bank Networks: Contagion, Systemic Risk and Prudential Policy
(2015-07-01)
We present a network model of the interbank market in which optimizing risk averse banks lend to each other and invest in non-liquid assets. Market clearing takes place through a tâtonnement process which yields the ...
Does Exchange of Information between Tax Authorities Influence Multinationals’ Use of Tax Havens?
(2015-02-23)
Since the mid-1990s, countries offering tax systems that facilitate international tax avoidance and evasion have been facing growing political pressure to comply with the internationally agreed standards of exchange of tax ...
Too Interconnected to Fail: A Survey of the Interbank Networks Literature
(2015-10-01)
The banking system is highly interconnected and these connections can be conveniently represented as an interbank network. This survey presents a systematic overview of the recent advances in the theoretical literature on ...
Fiscal Stimulus and Labor Market Flexibility
(2015-03-03)
This paper investigates whether a fiscal stimulus implies a different impact for flexible and rigid labour markets. The analysis is done for 11 advanced OECD economies. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, I estimate a ...
Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers
(2015-03-01)
"A number of recent studies regress a ""narratively"" identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of ...
Non-Mandatory Say on Pay Votes and AGM Participation: Evidence from Germany
(2015-06-01)
Since August 2009, German legislation allows for voluntary Say on Pay Votes (SoPV) during Annual General Meetings (AGMs). We examine 1,169 AGMs of all German listed firms with more than 10,000 agenda items over the period ...
Multiplex interbank networks and systemic importance: An application to European data
(2015-05-01)
Research on interbank networks and systemic importance is starting to recognise that the web of exposures linking banks balance sheets is more complex than the single-layer-of-exposure approach. We use data on exposures ...