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Level and Slope of Volatility Smiles in Long-Run Risk Models
(2017-10-16)
We propose a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility, a time-varying mean reversion level of volatility, and jumps in the state variables. The special feature of our model is that the jump intensity is not affine ...
Global Temperature, R&D Expenditure, and Growth
(2017-11-15)
We shed new light on the macroeconomic effects of rising temperatures. In the data, a shock to global temperature dampens expenditures in research and development (R&D). We rationalize this empirical evidence within a ...
Effects of Government Spending on Employment: Evidence from Winners and Runners-up in Procurement Auctions
(2018-05-01)
To estimate demand for labor, we use a combination of detailed employment data and the outcomes of procurement auctions, and compare the employment of the winner of an auction with the employment of the second ranked firm ...
Endogenous Retirement Behavior of Heterogeneous Households Under Pension Reforms
(2018-04-25)
We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model ...
Asset Pricing in OLG Economies With Borrowing Constraints and Idiosyncratic Income Risk
(2018-09-17)
This paper analyzes how the combination of borrowing constraints and idiosyncratic risk affects the equity premium in an overlapping generations economy. I find that introducing a zero-borrowing constraint in an economy ...
Monetary Policy and the Cost of Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Stock Market
(2018-01-01)
Using a unique confidential contract level dataset merged with firm-level asset price data, we find robust evidence that firms' stock market valuations and employment levels respond more to monetary policy announcements ...
The Collateralizability Premium
(2019-10-09)
A common prediction of macroeconomic models of credit market frictions is that the tightness of financial constraints is countercyclical. As a result, theory implies a negative collateralizability premium, that is, capital ...
Implied Volatility Duration: A Measure for the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution
(2020-01-27)
We introduce Implied Volatility Duration (IVD) as a new measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution, with a high IVD corresponding to late resolution. Portfolio sorts on a large cross-section of stocks indicate that ...
The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures
(2020-09-21)
Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the long-term impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. ...
Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models
(2021-01-22)
"Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test ...