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Systemic Risk and Sovereign Debt in the Euro Area
(2013-12-13)
We introduce a new measure of systemic risk, the change in the conditional joint probability of default, which assesses the effects of the interdependence in the financial system on the general default risk of sovereign ...
Bank Rescues and Bailout Expectations: The Erosion of Market Discipline During the Financial Crisis
(2016-10-01)
We design a novel test for changes in market discipline based on the relation between firm-specific risk, credit spreads, and equity returns. We use our method to analyze the evolution of bailout expectations during the ...
Assessing Systemic Fragility – a Probabilistic Perspective
(2014-10-01)
We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic ...
Optimal Asset Allocation for Interconnected Life Insurers in the Low Interest Rate Environment Under Solvency Regulation
(2014-12-01)
I assess how Basel III, Solvency II and the low interest rate environment will affect the financial connection between the bank and insurance sector by changing the funding patterns of banks as well as the investment ...
The Effects of Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds on Insurers’ Capital Requirements under Solvency II
(2015-02-01)
The Liikanen Group proposes contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds as a potential mechanism to enhance financial stability in the banking industry. Especially life insurance companies could serve as CoCo bond holders as they ...
Mortgage Supply and the US Housing Boom: The Role of the Community Reinvestment Act
(2019-10-30)
This paper studies the role of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in the US housing boom-bust cycle. I find that the enhancement in CRA enforcement in 1998 increased the growth rate of mortgage lending by CRA-regulated ...
Whatever it Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy
(2017-04-11)
Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive impact on periphery sovereign bonds. However, the stability ...
Liquidity Premia in CDS Markets
(2017-07-14)
We develop a state-space model to decompose bid and ask quotes of CDS into two components, fair default premium and liquidity premium. This approach gives a better estimate of the default premium than mid quotes, and it ...
Portfolio Similarity and Asset Liquidation in the Insurance Industry
(2018-07-30)
An important assumption underlying the designation of some insurers as systemically important is that their overlapping portfolio holdings can result in common selling. We measure the overlap in holdings using cosine ...
Networks in Risk Spillovers: A Multivariate GARCH Perspective
(2018-08-01)
We propose a spatiotemporal approach for modeling risk spillovers using time-varying proximity matrices based on observable financial networks and introduce a new bilateral specification. We study covariance stationarity ...