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The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Financial-Market Regulations: A General Equilibrium Analysis
(2016-01-25)
In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases ...
Horizontal Industry Relationships and Return Predictability
(2019-08-09)
It has been documented that vertical customer-supplier links between industries are the basis for strong cross-sectional stock return predictability (Menzly and Ozbas (2010)). We show that robust predictability also arises ...
Implied Volatility Duration: A Measure for the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution
(2020-01-27)
We introduce Implied Volatility Duration (IVD) as a new measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution, with a high IVD corresponding to late resolution. Portfolio sorts on a large cross-section of stocks indicate that ...
Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models
(2021-01-22)
"Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test ...
The FOMC Risk Shift
(2021-01-27)
We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call “risk shifts”, are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free ...