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Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models
(2021-01-22)
"Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test ...
On the (ir)relevance of monetary incentives in risk preference elicitation experiments
(2020-08-31)
Incentivized experiments in which individuals receive monetary rewards according to the outcomes of their decisions are regarded as the gold standard for preference elicitation in experimental economics. These task-related ...
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic
(2020-11-12)
We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We ...
Ambiguity and Investor Behavior
(2020-11-24)
We relate time-varying aggregate ambiguity (V-VSTOXX) to individual investor trading. We use the trading records of more than 100,000 individual investors from a large German online brokerage from March 2010 to December ...
An Extensible Model for Historical Financial Data with an Application to German Company and Stock Market Data
(2021-01-22)
Broad, long-term financial and economic datasets are a scarce resource, in particular in the European context. In this paper, we present an approach for an extensible, i.e. adaptable to future changes in technologies and ...
Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic
(2021-02-10)
How people form beliefs is crucial for understanding decision-making un- der uncertainty. This is particularly true in a situation such as a pandemic, where beliefs will affect behaviors that impact public health as well ...
Smart (Phone) Investing? A Within Investor-Time Analysis of New Technologies and Trading Behavior
(2021-02-02)
Using transaction-level data from two German banks, we study the effects of smartphones on investor behavior. Comparing trades by the same investor in the same month across different platforms, we find that smartphones ...
The FOMC Risk Shift
(2021-01-27)
We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call “risk shifts”, are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free ...
Obfuscation and Rational Inattention in Digitalized Markets
(2021-02-05)
This paper studies the behavior of competing firms in a duopoly with rational inattentive consumers. Firms play a sequential game in which they decide to obfuscate their individual prices before competing on price. ...
Global Realignment in Financial Market Dynamics: Evidence from ETF Networks
(2021-02-04)
The centrality of the United States in the global financial system is taken for granted, but its response to recent political and epidemiological events has suggested that China now holds a comparable position. Using ...