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dc.creatorGeppert, Christian
dc.creatorLudwig, Alexander
dc.creatorAbiry, Raphael
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-28T09:28:01Z
dc.date.available2021-09-28T09:28:01Z
dc.date.issued2016-09-08
dc.identifier.urihttps://fif.hebis.de/xmlui/handle/123456789/2246
dc.description.abstractOngoing demographic change will lead to a relative scarcity of raw labor to the effect that output growth will be decreasing in the next decades, a secular stagnation. As physical capital will be relatively abundant, this decrease of output will be accompanied by reductions of asset returns. We quantify these effects for the US economy by developing an overlapping generations model with risky and risk-free assets. Without adjustments of human capital, risky returns decrease until 2035 by about 0.7 percentage point, and the risk-free rate by about one percentage point, leading to substantial welfare losses for asset rich households. Per capita output is reduced by 6%. Endogenous human capital adjustments strongly mitigate these effects. We conclude that human capital policies will be crucial in the context of labor shortages.
dc.rightsAttribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
dc.subjectMacro Finance
dc.titleSecular Stagnation? Growth, Asset Returns and Welfare in the Next Decades: First Results
dc.typeWorking Paper
dcterms.referenceshttps://fif.hebis.de/xmlui/handle/123456789/1429?HMD
dcterms.referenceshttps://fif.hebis.de/xmlui/handle/123456789/1480?PSID
dcterms.referenceshttps://fif.hebis.de/xmlui/handle/123456789/1350?BEA NIPA
dcterms.referenceshttps://fif.hebis.de/xmlui/handle/123456789/1514?UN
dc.source.filename145_SSRN-id2841555
dc.identifier.safeno145
dc.subject.keywordssecular stagnation
dc.subject.keywordsdemographic change
dc.subject.keywordsoverlapping generations
dc.subject.keywordsnatural rate
dc.subject.keywordsequity premium
dc.subject.keywordsgrowth
dc.subject.keywordswelfare
dc.subject.keywordshuman capital
dc.subject.jelE17
dc.subject.jelC68
dc.subject.jelG12
dc.subject.topic1literature
dc.subject.topic1croce
dc.subject.topic1develop
dc.subject.topic2equity
dc.subject.topic2define
dc.subject.topic2population
dc.subject.topic3top
dc.subject.topic3recursive
dc.subject.topic3increase
dc.subject.topic1nameMacro Finance
dc.subject.topic2nameHousehold Finance
dc.subject.topic3nameMonetary Policy
dc.identifier.doi10.2139/ssrn.2841555


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Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International