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Option-Implied Information and Predictability of Extreme Returns
(2013-01-28)
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market ...
The Dynamics of Crises and the Equity Premium
(2015-05-18)
It is a major challenge for asset pricing models to generate a high equity premium and a low risk-free rate while imposing realistic consumption dynamics. To address this issue, our paper proposes a novel pricing channel: ...
Asset Pricing Under Uncertainty About Shock Propagation
(2014-03-25)
We analyze the equilibrium in a two-tree (sector) economy with two regimes. The output of each tree is driven by a jump-diffusion process, and a downward jump in one sector of the economy can (but need not) trigger a shift ...
Asset Prices in General Equilibrium with Recursive Utility and Illiquidity Induced by Transactions Costs
(2015-02-01)
In this paper, we study the effect of proportional transaction costs on consumption-portfolio decisions and asset prices in a dynamic general equilibrium economy with a financial market that has a single-period bond and ...
Mutual Excitation in Eurozone Sovereign CDS
(2014-05-01)
We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features ...
Optimal Consumption and Investment with Epstein-Zin Recursive Utility
(2016-07-04)
We study continuous-time optimal consumption and investment with Epstein-Zin recursive preferences in incomplete markets. We develop a novel approach that rigorously constructs the solution of the associated Hamilton-Jac ...
Anchoring in Experimental Asset Markets
(2015-02-10)
We investigate the relationship between anchoring and the emergence of bubbles in experimental asset markets. We show that setting a visual anchor at the fundamental value (FV) in the first period only is sufficient to ...
Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security
(2017-12-01)
We ask whether a pay-as-you-go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk. We show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from ...
Equilibrium Asset Pricing in Directed Networks
(2018-10-16)
Directed links in cash flow networks affect the cross-section of price exposures and market prices of risk in equilibrium. In an asset pricing model featuring mutually exciting jumps, we measure directedness through an ...
"Nobody is Perfect": Asset Pricing and Long-Run Survival When Heterogeneous Investors Exhibit Different Kinds of Filtering Errors
(2015-07-31)
In this paper we analyze an economy with two heterogeneous investors who both exhibit misspecified filtering models for the unobservable expected growth rate of the aggregated dividend. A key result of our analysis with ...