Browsing LIF-SAFE Working Papers by JEL Classification "D91"
Now showing items 1-20 of 24
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A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs
(2015-10-02)Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational ... -
Asset Pricing in OLG Economies With Borrowing Constraints and Idiosyncratic Income Risk
(2018-09-17)This paper analyzes how the combination of borrowing constraints and idiosyncratic risk affects the equity premium in an overlapping generations economy. I find that introducing a zero-borrowing constraint in an economy ... -
Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic
(2021-02-10)How people form beliefs is crucial for understanding decision-making un- der uncertainty. This is particularly true in a situation such as a pandemic, where beliefs will affect behaviors that impact public health as well ... -
Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs
(2018-06-02)This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent ... -
Consumption and Wage Humps in a Life-Cycle Model with Education
(2015-02-24)The observed hump-shaped life-cycle pattern in individuals’ consumption cannot be explained by the classical consumption-savings model. The consensus explanation is that the hump is caused by constraints and unspanned ... -
Consumption Habits and Humps
(2015-07-10)We show that the optimal consumption of an individual over the life cycle can have the hump shape (inverted U-shape) observed empirically if the preferences of the individual exhibit internal habit formation. In the absence ... -
Consumption-Investment Problems with Stochastic Mortality Risk
(2014-03-03)I numerically solve realistically calibrated life cycle consumption-investment problems in continuous time featuring stochastic mortality risk driven by jumps, unspanned labor income as well as short-sale and liquidity ... -
Critical Illness Insurance in Life Cycle Portfolio Problems
(2014-03-03)I analyze a critical illness insurance in a consumption-investment model over the life cycle. I solve a model with stochastic mortality risk and health shock risk numerically. These shocks are interpreted as critical illness ... -
Endogenous Retirement Behavior of Heterogeneous Households Under Pension Reforms
(2018-04-25)We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model ... -
Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations
(2020-05-21)We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations ... -
Housing Habits and Their Implications for Life-Cycle Consumption and Investment
(2017-01-26)We solve a rich life-cycle model of household decisions involving consumption of perishable goods and housing services, habit formation for housing consumption, stochastic labor income, stochastic house prices, home renting ... -
How Persistent Low Expected Returns Alter Optimal Life Cycle Saving, Investment, and Retirement Behavior
(2017-06-23)This Chapter explores how an environment of persistent low returns influences saving, investing, and retirement behaviors, as compared to what in the past had been thought of as more “normal” financial conditions. Our ... -
Implications of Money-Back Guarantees for Individual Retirement Accounts: Protection Then and Now
(2019-10-21)In the wake of the financial crisis and continued volatility in international capital markets, there is growing interest in mechanisms that can protect people against retirement account volatility. This paper explores the ... -
Life Insurance Demand under Health Shock Risk
(2015-06-03)This paper studies the life cycle consumption-investment-insurance problem of a family. The wage earner faces the risk of a health shock that significantly increases his probability of dying. The family can buy long-term ... -
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Machine Predictions and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
(2021-04-20)We show that disclosing machine predictions to affected parties can trigger self-fulfilling prophecies. In an investment game, we experimentally vary investors’ and recipients’ access to a machine prediction about recipients’ ... -
Motivated Beliefs and the Elderly's Compliance with COVID-19 Measures
(2021-01-26)Although the elderly are more vulnerable to COVID-19, the empirical evidence suggests that they do not behave more cautiously in the pandemic than younger individuals. This theoretical model argues that some individuals ... -
Optimal Consumption and Investment with Epstein-Zin Recursive Utility
(2016-07-04)We study continuous-time optimal consumption and investment with Epstein-Zin recursive preferences in incomplete markets. We develop a novel approach that rigorously constructs the solution of the associated Hamilton-Jac ... -
Predictors and Portfolios Over the Life Cycle
(2018-06-08)In a calibrated consumption-portfolio model with stock, housing, and labor income predictability, we evaluate the welfare effects of predictability on life-cycle consumption-portfolio choice. We compare skilled investors ... -
Preference Evolution and the Dynamics of Capital Markets
(2016-05-13)This paper introduces endogenous preference evolution into a Lucas-type economy and explores its consequences for investors' trading strategy and the dynamics of asset prices. In equilibrium, investors herd and hold the ... -
Pricing Sin Stocks: Ethical Preference vs. Risk Aversion
(2018-06-14)We develop a model that reproduces the average return and volatility spread between sin and non-sin stocks. Our investors do not necessarily boycott sin companies. Rather, they are open to invest in any company while trading ...