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Spillover Effects among Financial Institutions: A State-Dependent Sensitivity Value-at-Risk Approach
(2012-09-01)
In this paper, we develop a state-dependent sensitivity value-at-risk (SDSVaR) approach that enables us to quantify the direction, size, and duration of risk spillovers among financial institutions as a function of the ...
Systemic Risk and Sovereign Debt in the Euro Area
(2013-12-13)
We introduce a new measure of systemic risk, the change in the conditional joint probability of default, which assesses the effects of the interdependence in the financial system on the general default risk of sovereign ...
Banks’ financial distress, lending supply and consumption expenditure
(2014-02-01)
We employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. We ...
Exit Strategies
(2014-04-01)
We study alternative scenarios for exiting the post-crisis fiscal and monetary accommodation using a macromodel where banks choose their capital structure and are subject to runs. Under a Taylor rule, the post-crisis ...
Assessing Systemic Fragility – a Probabilistic Perspective
(2014-10-01)
We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic ...
Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and ECB Intervention: Deus Ex Machina?
(2016-11-18)
We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the Euro-zone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity ...
Systemic risk for financial institutions of major petroleum-based economies: The role of oil
(2017-11-05)
This paper examines the relationship between oil price movements and systemic risk of many financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies. We estimate ?CoVaR for those institutions and thereby observe the presence ...
Social Centralization, Bank Integration and the Transmission of Lending Shocks
(2017-08-01)
We introduce an innovative approach to measure bank integration, based on the corporate culture of multinational banking conglomerates. The new measure, the Power Index, assesses the prevalence of a language of power and ...
International Banking Conglomerates and the Transmission of Lending Shocks Across Borders
(2017-08-01)
We investigate how solvency and wholesale funding shocks to 84 OECD parent banks affect the lending of 375 foreign subsidiaries. We find that parent solvency shocks are more important than wholesale funding shocks for ...
Too Complex to Work: A Critical Assessment of the Bail-in Tool under the European Bank Recovery and Resolution Regime
(2018-02-06)
This paper analyzes the bail-in tool under the BRRD and predicts that it will not reach its policy objective. To make this argument, this paper first describes the policy rationale that calls for mandatory private sector ...