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A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs
(2015-10-02)
Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational ...
The Impact of Biases in Survival Beliefs on Savings Behavior
(2017-03-24)
"On average young people ""undersave"" whereas old people ""oversave"" with respect to the rational expectations model of life-cycle consumption and savings. According to numerous studies on subjective survival beliefs, ...
Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs
(2018-06-02)
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent ...
Time Preferences over the Life Cycle
(2020-02-01)
We study whether and how time preferences change over the life cycle, exploiting representative long-term panel data. We estimate the age patterns of discount rates from age 25 to 80. In order to identify age effects, we ...
Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic
(2021-02-10)
How people form beliefs is crucial for understanding decision-making un- der uncertainty. This is particularly true in a situation such as a pandemic, where beliefs will affect behaviors that impact public health as well ...
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Machine Predictions and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
(2021-04-20)
We show that disclosing machine predictions to affected parties can trigger self-fulfilling prophecies. In an investment game, we experimentally vary investors’ and recipients’ access to a machine prediction about recipients’ ...
WP313_BG_exp1_2021
A data set comprising 1397 distinct examples. We collected this data in an incentivized field study that we conducted at a large German university over three years (2016-2019) with first-semester economics students. Most ...
Survey_FFPZ_2021
Two survey experiments (fielded in May 2020, with a total of over 4,000 respondents) designed to study how motivated beliefs affect information selection and processing during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first survey was ...
HRS
The University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal panel study that surveys a representative sample of approximately 20,000 people in America, supported by the National Institute on Aging (NIA ...
WP313_BG_exp2_2021
In our experiment, participants engage in three subsequent one-shot investment games. Investors initially choose between keeping or investing 10 monetary units (MU) with recipients, who, in the case of investment, decide ...