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Option-Implied Information and Predictability of Extreme Returns
(2013-01-28)
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market ...
When Do Jumps Matter for Portfolio Optimization?
(2015-11-25)
We consider the continuous-time portfolio optimization problem of an investor with constant relative risk aversion who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The risky asset follows a jump-diffusion model with a ...
Partial Information about Contagion Risk, Self-Exciting Processes and Portfolio Optimization
(2013-04-18)
This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden ...
Asset Pricing Under Uncertainty About Shock Propagation
(2014-03-25)
We analyze the equilibrium in a two-tree (sector) economy with two regimes. The output of each tree is driven by a jump-diffusion process, and a downward jump in one sector of the economy can (but need not) trigger a shift ...
Equilibrium Asset Pricing in Directed Networks
(2018-10-16)
Directed links in cash flow networks affect the cross-section of price exposures and market prices of risk in equilibrium. In an asset pricing model featuring mutually exciting jumps, we measure directedness through an ...
"Nobody is Perfect": Asset Pricing and Long-Run Survival When Heterogeneous Investors Exhibit Different Kinds of Filtering Errors
(2015-07-31)
In this paper we analyze an economy with two heterogeneous investors who both exhibit misspecified filtering models for the unobservable expected growth rate of the aggregated dividend. A key result of our analysis with ...
Systemic Co-Jumps
(2016-10-10)
The simultaneous occurrence of jumps in several stocks can be associated with major financial news, triggers short-term predictability in stock returns, is correlated with sudden spikes of the variance risk premium, and ...
International Capital Markets with Time-Varying Preferences
(2017-08-02)
We propose a 2-country asset-pricing model where agents' preferences change endogenously as a function of the popularity of internationally traded goods. We determine the effect of the time-variation of preferences on ...
Level and Slope of Volatility Smiles in Long-Run Risk Models
(2017-10-16)
We propose a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility, a time-varying mean reversion level of volatility, and jumps in the state variables. The special feature of our model is that the jump intensity is not affine ...
Volatility-of-Volatility Risk
(2018-05-01)
We show that time-varying volatility of volatility is a significant risk factor which affects the cross-section and the time-series of index and VIX option returns, beyond volatility risk itself. Volatility and ...