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How do insured deposits affect bank risk? Evidence from the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act
(2014-10-01)
This paper tests whether an increase in insured deposits causes banks to become more risky. We use variation introduced by the U.S. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act in October 2008, which increased the deposit insurance ...
Exit Strategies
(2014-04-01)
We study alternative scenarios for exiting the post-crisis fiscal and monetary accommodation using a macromodel where banks choose their capital structure and are subject to runs. Under a Taylor rule, the post-crisis ...
Assessing Systemic Fragility – a Probabilistic Perspective
(2014-10-01)
We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic ...
The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
(2014-04-01)
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty ...
The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation Plans
(2014-10-01)
We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks. Simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 OECD countries ...