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Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models
(2021-01-22)
"Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test ...
The FOMC Risk Shift
(2021-01-27)
We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call “risk shifts”, are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free ...
Obfuscation and Rational Inattention in Digitalized Markets
(2021-02-05)
This paper studies the behavior of competing firms in a duopoly with rational inattentive consumers. Firms play a sequential game in which they decide to obfuscate their individual prices before competing on price. ...
Global Realignment in Financial Market Dynamics: Evidence from ETF Networks
(2021-02-04)
The centrality of the United States in the global financial system is taken for granted, but its response to recent political and epidemiological events has suggested that China now holds a comparable position. Using ...
A Modern Take on Market Efficiency: The Impact of Trump’s Tweets on Financial Markets
(2021-05-06)
We focus on the role of social media as a high-frequency, unfiltered mass information transmission channel and how its use for government communication affects the aggregate stock markets. To measure this effect, we ...
The Power of ESG Ratings on Stock Markets
(2021-03-10)
This paper studies the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings on investors’ preferences and stock prices. We exploit a change in ESG rating methodology that non-linearly shifted ESG ratings for firms ...
Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment
(2021-03-24)
We define a sentiment indicator that exploits two contrasting views of return predictability, and study its properties. The indicator, which is based on option prices, valuation ratios and interest rates, was unusually ...
The salience of ESG ratings for stock pricing: Evidence from (potentially) confused investors
(2021-10-08)
We exploit a modification to Sustainalytics' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) rating methodology, which is subsequently adopted by Morningstar, to study whether ESG ratings are salient for stock pricing. We show ...
Impact of public news sentiment on stock market index return and volatility
(2021-10-11)
Recent advances in natural language processing have contributed to the development of market sentiment measures through text content analysis in news providers and social media. The effectiveness of these sentiment variables ...
Expl(AI)ned: The impact of explainable artificial intelligence on cognitive processes
(2021-06-25)
This paper explores the interplay of feature-based explainable AI (XAI) techniques, information processing, and human beliefs. Using a novel experimental protocol, we study the impact of providing users with explanations ...