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Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs
(2018-06-02)
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent ...
Higher-Order Income Risk over the Business Cycle: A Parametric Approach
(2020-03-24)
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher- order risk. We estimate our extended income process by ...
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic
(2020-11-12)
We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We ...