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Monetary Policy and Risk Taking
(2016-05-19)
We assess the effects of monetary policy on bank risk to verify the existence of a risk-taking channel — monetary expansions inducing banks to assume more risk. We first present VAR evidence confirming that this channel ...
Control Thyself: Self-Control Failure and Household Wealth
(2014-10-09)
We examine the relationship between household wealth and self-control. Although self-control has been linked to consumption and financial behavior, its measurement remains an open issue. We employ a definition of self-control ...
Credit Cycles: Experimental Evidence
(2016-06-23)
This paper reports that credit cycles emerged in laboratory economies that were not hit by aggregate shocks and in which information about fundamentals was perfect. This main result is in our view puzzling because standard ...
Preference Evolution and the Dynamics of Capital Markets
(2016-05-13)
This paper introduces endogenous preference evolution into a Lucas-type economy and explores its consequences for investors' trading strategy and the dynamics of asset prices. In equilibrium, investors herd and hold the ...
Can Firms see into the Future? Survey evidence from Germany
(2017-11-03)
This paper presents new evidence on the expectation formation process of firms from a survey of the German manufacturing sector. It focuses on the expectation about their future business conditions, which enters the widely ...
Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs
(2018-06-02)
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent ...
The Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases Revisited
(2018-02-13)
This paper revisits the macroeconomic effects of the large-scale asset purchase programmes launched by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from 2008. Using a Bayesian VAR, we investigate the macroeconomic impact ...
Can Households See into the Future? Survey Evidence from the Netherlands
(2018-07-14)
This paper presents new evidence on the expectation formation process from a Dutch household survey. Households become too optimistic about their future income after their income has improved, consistent with the ...
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic
(2020-11-12)
We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We ...
FRED
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) is a database maintained by the Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louisthat has more than 500,000 economic time series from 87 sources. The data can be viewed in ...