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Option-Implied Information and Predictability of Extreme Returns
(2013-01-28)
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market ...
Mutual Excitation in Eurozone Sovereign CDS
(2014-05-01)
We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features ...
International Endogenous Growth, Macro Anomalies, and Asset Prices
(2016-07-20)
"This paper studies a two-country production economy with complete and frictionless financial markets and international trade in which competition in R&D leads to endogenous new firm creation and economic growth. Current ...
Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and ECB Intervention: Deus Ex Machina?
(2016-11-18)
We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the Euro-zone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity ...
Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe
(2015-04-01)
This paper analyzes sovereign risk shift-contagion, i.e. positive and significant changes in the propagation mechanisms, using bond yield spreads for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing the use of two econometric ...
Commodities, Financialization, and Heterogeneous Agents
(2016-04-28)
The term 'financialization' describes the phenomenon that commodity contracts are traded for purely financial reasons and not for motives rooted in the real economy. Recently, financialization has been made responsible for ...
Technology Trade with Asymmetric Tax Regimes and Heterogeneous Labor Markets: Implications for Macro Quantities and Asset Prices
(2017-10-05)
The international diffusion of technology plays a key role in stimulating global growth and explaining co-movements of international equity returns. Existing empirical evidence suggests that countries are heterogeneous in ...
Innovation Dynamics and Fiscal Policy: Implications for Growth, Asset Prices, and Welfare
(2017-04-13)
"We study the general equilibrium implications of different fiscal policies on macroeconomic quantities, asset prices, and welfare by utilizing two endogenous growth models. The expanding variety model features only ...
Liquidity Premia in CDS Markets
(2017-07-14)
We develop a state-space model to decompose bid and ask quotes of CDS into two components, fair default premium and liquidity premium. This approach gives a better estimate of the default premium than mid quotes, and it ...
Global Temperature, R&D Expenditure, and Growth
(2017-11-15)
We shed new light on the macroeconomic effects of rising temperatures. In the data, a shock to global temperature dampens expenditures in research and development (R&D). We rationalize this empirical evidence within a ...