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Option-Implied Information and Predictability of Extreme Returns
(2013-01-28)
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market ...
When Do Jumps Matter for Portfolio Optimization?
(2015-11-25)
We consider the continuous-time portfolio optimization problem of an investor with constant relative risk aversion who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The risky asset follows a jump-diffusion model with a ...
Partial Information about Contagion Risk, Self-Exciting Processes and Portfolio Optimization
(2013-04-18)
This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden ...
Asset Pricing Under Uncertainty About Shock Propagation
(2014-03-25)
We analyze the equilibrium in a two-tree (sector) economy with two regimes. The output of each tree is driven by a jump-diffusion process, and a downward jump in one sector of the economy can (but need not) trigger a shift ...
Add-On Pricing in Retail Financial Markets and the Fallacies of Consumer Education
(2016-07-11)
We analyze the consequences of consumer education on prices and welfare in retail financial markets when some consumers are naive about shrouded addon prices and banks try to exploit this. Allowing for different information ...
Equilibrium Asset Pricing in Directed Networks
(2018-10-16)
Directed links in cash flow networks affect the cross-section of price exposures and market prices of risk in equilibrium. In an asset pricing model featuring mutually exciting jumps, we measure directedness through an ...
"Nobody is Perfect": Asset Pricing and Long-Run Survival When Heterogeneous Investors Exhibit Different Kinds of Filtering Errors
(2015-07-31)
In this paper we analyze an economy with two heterogeneous investors who both exhibit misspecified filtering models for the unobservable expected growth rate of the aggregated dividend. A key result of our analysis with ...
Preference Evolution and the Dynamics of Capital Markets
(2016-05-13)
This paper introduces endogenous preference evolution into a Lucas-type economy and explores its consequences for investors' trading strategy and the dynamics of asset prices. In equilibrium, investors herd and hold the ...
Predictors and Portfolios Over the Life Cycle
(2018-06-08)
In a calibrated consumption-portfolio model with stock, housing, and labor income predictability, we evaluate the welfare effects of predictability on life-cycle consumption-portfolio choice. We compare skilled investors ...
Taring All Investors with the Same Brush? Evidence for Heterogeneity in Individual Preferences from a Maximum Likelihood Approach
(2015-05-19)
Abstract. Microeconomic modeling of investors behavior in financial markets and its results crucially depends on assumptions about the mathematical shape of the underlying preference functions as well as their parameterizations. ...