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Asset Pricing Under Uncertainty About Shock Propagation
(2014-03-25)
We analyze the equilibrium in a two-tree (sector) economy with two regimes. The output of each tree is driven by a jump-diffusion process, and a downward jump in one sector of the economy can (but need not) trigger a shift ...
"Nobody is Perfect": Asset Pricing and Long-Run Survival When Heterogeneous Investors Exhibit Different Kinds of Filtering Errors
(2015-07-31)
In this paper we analyze an economy with two heterogeneous investors who both exhibit misspecified filtering models for the unobservable expected growth rate of the aggregated dividend. A key result of our analysis with ...
The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Financial-Market Regulations: A General Equilibrium Analysis
(2016-01-25)
In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases ...
Temperature Shocks and Welfare Costs
(2018-01-22)
This paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures. Using a standard VAR, we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable, negative and statistically significant impact on TFP, output, and labor ...
International Capital Markets with Time-Varying Preferences
(2017-08-02)
We propose a 2-country asset-pricing model where agents' preferences change endogenously as a function of the popularity of internationally traded goods. We determine the effect of the time-variation of preferences on ...
Level and Slope of Volatility Smiles in Long-Run Risk Models
(2017-10-16)
We propose a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility, a time-varying mean reversion level of volatility, and jumps in the state variables. The special feature of our model is that the jump intensity is not affine ...
The Collateralizability Premium
(2019-10-09)
A common prediction of macroeconomic models of credit market frictions is that the tightness of financial constraints is countercyclical. As a result, theory implies a negative collateralizability premium, that is, capital ...
Implied Volatility Duration: A Measure for the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution
(2020-01-27)
We introduce Implied Volatility Duration (IVD) as a new measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution, with a high IVD corresponding to late resolution. Portfolio sorts on a large cross-section of stocks indicate that ...
Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models
(2021-01-22)
"Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test ...
Kenneth French
The Fama-French Portfolios are constructed from the intersections of two portfolios formed on size, as measured by market equity (ME), and three portfolios using the ratio of book equity to market equity (BE/ME) as a proxy ...