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Euro Membership and Fiscal Reaction Functions
(2013-05-10)
The paper uses fiscal reaction functions for a panel of euro-area countries to investigate whether euro membership has reduced the responsiveness of countries to shocks in the level of inherited debt compared to the period ...
Trust in Government and Fiscal Adjustments
(2013-06-04)
The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation ...
Austerity, Fiscal Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Insights from Fiscally Weak EU Countries
(2014-08-08)
Recent empirical evidence suggests that during the last years fiscally weak European countries significantly cut their R&D budgets in an effort to reduce their deficit, according to the spirit of the Fiscal Compact. We ...
The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
(2014-04-01)
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty ...
Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies
(2014-12-12)
Europe’s debt crisis casts doubt on the effectiveness of fiscal austerity in highly-integrated economies. Closed-economy models overestimate its effectiveness, because they underestimate tax-base elasticities and ignore ...
Does Austerity Pay Off?
(2015-02-01)
We ask whether cuts of government consumption lower or raise the sovereign default premium. To address this question, we set up a new data set for 38 emerging and advanced economies which contains quarterly time-series ...
The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation Plans
(2014-10-01)
We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks. Simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 OECD countries ...
Fiscal Stimulus and Labor Market Flexibility
(2015-03-03)
This paper investigates whether a fiscal stimulus implies a different impact for flexible and rigid labour markets. The analysis is done for 11 advanced OECD economies. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, I estimate a ...
Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers
(2015-03-01)
"A number of recent studies regress a ""narratively"" identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of ...
Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Increasing Taxes on Top Income Earners
(2015-07-13)
We analyze the macroeconomic implications of increasing the top marginal income tax rate using a dynamic general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents and a fiscal structure resembling the actual U.S. tax system. ...